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Why is it that some governments or administrations emerge from disasters more popular and politically stronger, while most appear to emerge less popular and politically weaker, sometimes fatally so?
It’s a question that has plagued political leaders for centuries. Seeking a definitive answer, Richard S. Olson, chairman of FIU’s Department of Politics and International Relations, and Vincent T. Gawronski, associate professor at Birmingham Southern College in Alabama, have co-authored “From Disaster Event to Political Crisis: A 5C+A Framework for Analysis.”
Published in the current issue of International Studies Perspectives, the paper identifies six political dimensions of disasters that leaders often ignore: public perceptions of capability, competence, compassion, correctness, credibility, and anticipation. The authors show that some political leaders have proven adept at responding to disasters on these dimensions, but most come up short, often to the detriment of their political careers and sometimes to the fall of entire governments.
“The policy and practitioner community should be as interested in this article as the academic community,” said Douglas Van Belle, the journal’s editor-in-chief. “It is thoughtful and seems more relevant every day.”
The authors point out that the relevance of their 5C+A framework is likely to only increase in 21st century, noting the 2001 Gujarat earthquake that killed at least 20,000 people; the 2004 Asian tsunami, which killed an estimated 240,000; the 2008 cyclone in Burma/Myanmar, which killed 120,000; the 2008 Sichuan earthquake in China, which killed at least 67,000; and the Haiti earthquake earlier this year, which killed at least 230,000.
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I agree with the 6 political dimensions. Very true. Good job by Olsen.
After natural disasters or social collapses, the government's firmness and consistency with the people is put to the test. During these difficult times, the strength of the government's political will to make the right decision is also put to the test. The charisma that leaders have also influences whether the government emerges stronger or weaker.
Firmness, consistency, political will, and charisma during difficult situations are in my opinion four key aspects of governments that will determine whether they emerge politically stronger or weaker.