Everything you need to know about the 2016 Iowa caucuses


By Joel Delgado ’12 MS ’17 

If you feel like the presidential race has been in full swing for quite some time, you’re not alone. But in reality, the (official) process hasn’t begun. A single vote has yet to be cast.

That will change Monday, Feb. 1. Iowa voters will gather in homes and other small venues serving as caucus sites across the state in one of the most unique electoral experiences in the nation.

Throughout the year, Department of Politics & International Relations professors Dario Moreno and Sara Moats are offering a series of online courses  focused on the 2016 presidential election. This spring, students signed up for their POS 4931 online course,“The Primary Elections,” focusing on the primary system in the United States while closely following the Democratic and Republican primary elections and caucuses.

In the summer, Moreno and Moats will offer a course on the party conventions and during the Fall 2016 semester they will teach a course focused on the general elections.

This week, the online class discussed the upcoming Iowa caucuses with Moreno reporting live from Iowa, where he is following the various campaign activities.

Moreno took a few moments during his trip to the Hawkeye State to answer some questions about the Iowa caucuses:

FIU News: First off, what is a caucus? And how does it work?

Dario Moreno: A caucus is a political meeting where instead of the usual voting, you attend a meeting of voters in their precinct, either Democrat or Republican, and people can actually campaign and hear from representatives from the different campaigns.

In a Republican caucus, you hear from officials or representatives from each of the campaigns – Donald Trump has his, Marco Rubio has one, so does Jeb Bush, and so on – who will make a pitch for their candidates. At the end, there is a secret ballot – you write down the candidate of your choice and submit the vote.

On the Democrat side, there’s a little more campaigning. Voters gather in a section designated for the candidate they are voting for and then they are counted. If a candidate doesn’t reach 15 percent, they can switch their vote to another candidate. For example, if Martin O’ Malley doesn’t get 15 percent of the vote, those voters can go to Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders.

Caucuses are a little more dynamic. They are interactive and you know how your neighbors are voting.

FIU News: What is at stake for the candidates in both parties during the Iowa caucus?

Moreno: The Iowa caucuses aren’t really about delegates. There are relatively few delegates at stake (52 for Democrats, 30 for Republicans) for both parties. What’s important is that Iowa is the first test of each candidate’s popularity.

We’ve been hearing all about Trump over the last few months, but when the rubber meets the road, will people vote for him? That’s what is at stake. Beginning with Iowa, it’s no longer about polls or pundits, but now voters will determine the positions of candidates.

For candidates in either party, it is very hard to recover if you finish below third place. The Iowa caucuses usually narrow the field and establish the frontrunners.

FIU News: What are a few of the major storylines to keep an eye on as the Iowa caucuses unfold?

Moreno: On the Democrat side, is Hillary Clinton vulnerable? If Hillary wins big, the Sanders campaign probably collapses. But if Sanders wins, Hillary will find herself in a real fight.

On the Republican side, how strong is Trump’s candidacy? If Trump wins Iowa, all the momentum will be on his side and he will be difficult to beat. If he doesn’t take first place, it will show he is vulnerable and the anti-Trump forces will see an opportunity there.

Every candidate comes in with his or her own expectations. For Rubio, finishing third is OK – he will have met expectations and he can live to fight another day in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. But if Jeb finishes third, it will bring new life to his campaign and could be a breakthrough moment for him.

FIU News: In your online course this semester on the primary elections, you talk about the ‘invisible primary’ – which takes place from the moment a candidate announces his or her campaign to the first primary or caucus. What is the importance of this invisible primary?

Moreno: The invisible primary is a combination of fundraising, organization, how well a candidate’s message resonates and how a candidate positions him or herself in regard to the other candidates. All these factors give you a sense of how the candidates rank.

Iowa, along with New Hampshire and the other early primary states, verify that or present a different narrative. Iowa marks the change from perception to reality, because now people will actually be casting votes.

FIU News: In your view, who have been the biggest winners and losers of the invisible primary? Why?

Moreno: The two biggest winners were Sanders and Trump. They became household names and established themselves as alternatives to the presumed frontrunners.

The biggest loser has to be Jeb Bush and the five candidates, most of them governors, who have dropped out of the GOP race.

Everyone thought Hillary would have a coronation to the nomination, and she still might. But Sanders has now emerged as a viable alternative. Jeb was expected to be the undisputed frontrunner for the Republicans, and now he is in the second tier.

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FIU News: What has surprised you the most about the 2016 primary season up until this point?

Moreno: The thing that surprised me is how angry voters are and how hungry they are for a change in policy. People are angry with the political establishment in both parties and this is an election where experience actually works against you instead of for you. That’s why outsiders like Trump, Cruz and Sanders are doing so well and why Hillary, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and Jeb are doing – or did – so poorly.

FIU News: Two of the biggest stories of the primary season have been the rise of Donald Trump as the GOP frontrunner and Bernie Sanders’ surge as a legitimate threat to Hillary Clinton. Why have both of these candidates resonated with voters, particularly in Iowa?

Moreno: Trump has capitalized on the frustration Republicans have with the perceived weakness of President Obama. He has been able to bring home this simple message: America is losing because its leaders are stupid. And that message has resonated with many conservative and Republican voters.

Bernie Sanders is talking about income inequality and how difficult it is to survive on a low income. It shows how scared people are, how discontent they are with an economy that has failed to help the middle class, and how disappointed they are the last two administrations.

FIU News: There are two politicians from Florida running for president – former Governor Jeb Bush and Senator Marco Rubio. What are both candidates looking to accomplish in the Iowa caucus?

Moreno: Rubio is in a much better position than Bush, and I think he will definitely finish third and that will allow him to fight another day in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. If he can exceed expectations and finish second, it would be a major turning point for his campaign.

On the other hand, Bush has to do better and break into the top three in Iowa. You have to win, show or place in Iowa and New Hampshire. If not, your candidacy is in real trouble. If he finishes top three, it would be a political miracle and could help him make a comeback.

FIU News: So what’s next? How do you anticipate the races in both parties shifting or changing now that the voting has actually begun?

Moreno: What you will have is much more narrow field in New Hampshire. We will probably be down to six or seven Republican candidates. We will know if Bernie wins in Iowa that he will definitely win in New Hampshire – the only question is how big his win will be in New Hampshire.

We will see who will emerge as the anti-Trump candidate – it could be Rubio, Bush or Cruz. It might even be John Kasich or Chris Christie. New Hampshire will finally decide that.


For more information on the online three-course series on the 2016 presidential election, go to the Department of Politics & International Relations website