Why the Ukrainian invasion was predictable: 'It’s time the world finally learns a lesson on Russia'

As part of an op-ed series, FIU News shares the expertise and diverse perspectives of members of the university community. In this piece, Besiki Luka Kutateladze, associate professor in the Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice and a native of the Republic of Georgia, examines how many experts saw the attack on Ukraine coming – and even warned the world of its probability.

By Besiki Luka Kutateladze

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is finally getting deserved attention. From financial sanctions to direct military assistance, the West is getting united to confront Putin’s imperialism. This development comes with the realization that the benefits of standing against Russian aggression outweigh the economic and security risks posed by these actions. While it is certainly refreshing to see the West finally throw a punch, much of this could have been done sooner.   

I remember 2008, standing outside the United Nations headquarters in New York City as an international student from Georgia, screaming my lungs out: If the West ignores the Russian invasion of Georgia, this would encourage Russia’s subsequent military expansion both south and westward. Just like in 2008, the opportunities still appear endless, from Kazakhstan to the Baltic States, even if the latter are NATO members.

Russia occupies 20% of Georgia, and continues the process of creeping annexation of the land surrounding occupied territories. Russia has also orchestrated frozen conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh and Transnistria.

Yet the move toward Ukraine seemed to yield the greatest prizes for the post-Soviet era. The invasion aimed to deter Euro-Atlantic integration of Ukraine, as well as Georgia and Moldova. Putin has always viewed Ukraine as part of the historical land of greater Russia. The 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea and eastern Ukraine has tamed the raging appetite of the imperialistic monster for nearly eight years, but those who thought Putin would stop there fooled themselves.

The ground for a Ukraine invasion could not have been any more fertile.

The European Union’s increasing energy dependence on Russia has made many Europeans, and especially Germans, prioritize today’s egg over tomorrow’s chicken. As Russia’s natural gas, crude oil and solid fuel kept European cars running and buildings heated, many European politicians blamed Ukrainians (and also Georgians) for not being ready to join the EU or NATO.

During the 2008 Bucharest Summit, NATO created a pathway for Ukraine and Georgia’s membership to NATO, but no substantive next steps have been taken, leaving these fragile democracies in peril of returning to the Russian orbit.

The abandonment of Ukraine and Georgia has stagnated pro-democratic reforms in the entire post-Soviet sphere whose leaders watch carefully as both Georgia and Ukraine are paying a heavy price for looking westward.

Russia has remained undeterred for far too long. The ongoing war in Ukraine is being fought on behalf of the whole region. The Ukrainian people are being punished for their commitment to building a free democratic society, one that its eastern neighbor still loathes. Offering NATO and EU memberships is the very least we can do to thank these fighters for their commitment to a free world.

Professor Kutateladze experienced Russian aggression firsthand in the 90s when Russia took over Georgia's Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions. During the 2008 Russo-Georgian war, he joined fellow Georgians in New York City and Washington D.C. to protest the occupation and to warn about likely future aggression from the Putin regime. From 2008 to 2013, he played a crucial role in the development of the United Nations Rule of Law Indicators. In 2002, he was the U.S. State Department Fellow from the Republic of Georgia. He holds a law degree from Georgia and a PhD in Criminal Justice from the United States.