FIU Poll: More than 80 percent of Latinos say they are ‘very likely’ to vote, could tip the scales in Tuesday’s election

Latino voters will play a pivotal role in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, according to findings from the 2024 FIU Latino Poll.

The poll indicates that Latino participation is increasing across the U.S., and that their shifting support could shape the outcome. The 2024 poll finds that 80% of respondents nationwide are “very likely” to vote, indicating rising participation, compared to previous election cycles. The poll results come from a survey of 1,500 Latino voters from Oct. 10 to Oct. 22, 2024, and have a margin of error of ±2.9%. Respondents included voters in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

As election night draws closer, most Latino voters say they support Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris holds a 54.7% favorability rating in key battleground states and 56.9% nationally, positioning her to capture the bulk of the Latino vote. In contrast, former President Donald Trump’s favorability trails Harris, at 27.7% in swing states and 33.4% nationwide, reflecting regional divides and a challenge for his campaign to resonate with this critical electorate. In Florida, however, Trump will benefit from higher levels of support, thanks in large part to the Cuban American voters in South Florida. 

“Each of the battleground states has a significant Latino electorate, and in close races, every vote counts—if you win by just one vote, you take the entire electorate,” said  Eduardo Gamarra, director of the Latino Public Opinion Forum at FIU’s Gordon Institute. “It’s a game of margins. Higher turnout by Latino voters could, in fact, determine the next President of the United States.”

The growing number of independents — now 25.8% in battleground states — reflects a shift away from party loyalty and toward issue-based voting. In contrast, last year’s national survey indicated stronger Democratic alignment, with 48% identifying as Democrats and 30% as Republicans. This shift signals broader disengagement from major parties, with voters focusing more on candidates whose values align with their priorities.

“This year’s survey highlights the diverse perspectives and growing political independence of Latino voters, along with their increasing focus on specific issues over party loyalty,” said Brian Fonseca, director of the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy. “As we approach 2024 and in future elections, candidates will need to connect authentically on key issues with this growing electorate.” 

Economic concerns remain central, with 45% of respondents citing the economy as the most important issue. After that, 11.1% cite reproductive rights, 8.8% cite immigration, and 5.8% cite healthcare. The poll also reveals a gender gap in economic outlook where 10.6% of men rated the economy as “excellent” compared to just 6.3% of women. Additionally, younger respondents and women show stronger support for reproductive rights, while older, conservative voters lean toward stricter abortion policies, highlighting generational and ideological divides. 

“The Latino vote in the United States, especially in swing states, is likely to play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the upcoming presidential election,” said Carlos Díaz-Rosillo, founding director of the Adam Smith Center for Economic Freedom. “This poll highlights that Latino voters are concerned with core economic issues, such as inflation, job availability, and overall economic stability. That is why it is so important for candidates to offer concrete, actionable proposals to secure the trust and support of Latino — and all — voters.” 

The FIU Latino Poll is a collaborative effort under FIU’s Latino Public Opinion Forum, which includes the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy, the Adam Smith Center for Economic Freedom, the Steven J. Green School of International and Public Affairs, and the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center. Backed by the support of Adsmovil, the poll has, over the past decade, become a vital resource for policymakers, political strategists, and scholars, providing essential insights into the rapidly growing Latino electorate. Official release of the poll results took place at the university's center in Washington, D.C. and streamed live to an audience of more than one thousand.

Full survey results and past surveys are available on FIU’s Latino Public Opinion Forum website.