Five Takeaways from the "Consequences for Cuba of a Course Correction in Venezuela" discussion with a panel of experts

Although the situation in Venezuela after the U.S. capture of Nicolas Maduro is still fluid, there is growing speculation on the repercussions for the Castro regime in Cuba. While international attention on Cuba grows, the island faces its most severe economic and social crisis in decades. A deepening collapse of basic services, record levels of migration, widespread shortages of food, fuel and medicine, and ongoing political repression are converging with regional instability – including turmoil in Venezuela – to raise urgent questions about Cuba’s future. As speculation grows about whether the regime can sustain itself under mounting internal and external pressures, the United States has signaled growing support for regime change in Cuba, adding urgency to regional and global policy conversations.

Recently, a team of experts discussed these repercussions and the potential consequences for the regime now entering its 68th year in power. Organized by the Cuban Research Institute at the Steven J. Green School of International & Public Affairs and in partnership with FIU CasaCuba, Adam Smith Center for Economic Freedom and the Kimberly Green Latin American & Caribbean Center, the experts explored how shifts in Venezuela — even short of full regime change — could have profound ramifications for the Cuban regime, which has relied on Caracas for decades.

The panel members included:  Jorge R. Piñón, The Energy Institute, University of Texas at Austin; Darío Moreno, Department of Politics & International Relations; Eduardo Gamarra, Department of Politics & International Relations; Carlos Díaz-Rosillo, Founding Director, Adam Smith Center; Helen Aguirre-Ferre, Assistant director for Government and Public Policy, Adam Smith Center. The discussion was moderated by Sebastián Arcos, Interim Director, Cuban Research Institute.

Here are five key takeaways from the two-hour panel discussion:
1. The Cuban state’s apparatus of repression is probably the only thing that has not collapsed.
2. No one believes the United States will militarily intervene in Cuba.
3. Most likely a maximum pressure campaign that may last from 2 to 3 years of continued deterioration until the regime and/or country collapses creating a humanitarian crisis.
4. Fundamentally, Cuba’s infrastructure rebuilding needs dwarfs any diaspora’s capacity to rebuild the country. The United States will not invest the kind of money that is required for an infrastructure redevelopment. The US will not be funding a Marshall Plan for any country, especially leading to the 2026 mid-term election and the 2028 federal election.
5. A profound cultural, economic, and political change must occur for investments in Cuba to flow.

Go to the FIU Cuban Research Institute’s YouTube page to learn more by viewing a recording of the panel discussion: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKWHixB7xTQ