How the new food pyramid could disrupt food markets

The newly updated food pyramid is unlikely to trigger an overnight transformation in how Americans eat. But over time, it could influence consumer behavior in ways that ripple far beyond the dinner table — reshaping grocery shopping patterns, supply chains and the balance between fresh and processed foods.

The 2025–2030 Dietary Guidelines for Americans, released earlier this month, introduce a significant "reset" of federal nutrition policy, featuring an inverted, or upside-down, food pyramid. This new model prioritizes nutrient-dense, “real”food - specifically high-quality protein, healthy fats, and dairy - over highly processed, sugary, and refined foods.

That impact of the new recommendations, experts say, will be gradual and uneven.

The consumer challenge

For consumers, following the new guidelines means confronting three significant barriers: accessibility, affordability and effort. Fresh foods spoil faster, requiring more frequent grocery trips. Also, they cost more than processed alternatives and preparing whole meals demands time and knowledge that many families might not have.

"Our biology seeks energy and our mind seeks pleasure," said Sebastian Garcia Dastugue, associate professor of marketing an logistics. "Both come from the sugars, fats and salty foods we know are not the best for us but crave when we're having a moment of weakness.”

Opportunities for retailers

Grocery stores have a unique opportunity to capitalize on these guidelines through strategic marketing and store design. Garcia Dastugue suggests creating dedicated sections featuring pyramid-aligned foods, educational signage and recipe cards that guide shoppers toward healthier choices.

"If grocery stores continue nudging consumers with the wrong items, they are making it more difficult for people to access the foods they need," he says. "A store-within-a-store concept that supports the new pyramid could differentiate retailers while doing social good."

Disparate impacts across the supply chain

The implications extend deep into the food industry. Major processed food manufacturers face headwinds as their products move further from recommended eating patterns. Meanwhile, fresh food producers — farmers, ranchers and local growers — stand to benefit as fresh foods usually favor shorter supply chains.

However, scaling fresh food production isn't as simple as ramping up a factory line. Biological processes impose hard limits. Ranchers can't instantly increase beef production, as cows have reproduction cycles impose by biology. Produce has limited shelf life. 

"The benefit of industrialized foods is shelf stability," Garcia Dastugue explains. "Fresh food requires being extremely sharp at logistics. A fishmonger's only choice is to “sell it or smell it." Fishmongers typically are good at logistics, even if they have not been trained formally, as their business demands it.

Translating guidelines into changed behavior — at the consumer, retail, and industry levels — will require coordinated effort. For businesses willing to adapt, it may also represent significant opportunity.