FIU poll reveals Hispanic vote in the United States is up for grabs in next presidential election

While most Hispanics remain registered Democrats, support for the party is eroding, according to the results of the Annual Hispanic Public Opinion Survey.

In fact, many Hispanics are beginning to opt out of party affiliation altogether. This is the trend that could have the greatest impact on Democrats, according to FIU political scientists. Hispanics polled show unenthusiastic support for both presumed candidates in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

FIU’s Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy’s Latino Public Opinion Forum and Adam Smith Center for Economic Freedom , with support from Adsmovil, released the poll results on Wednesday. The survey gives insight on Hispanic voters’ general perceptions on a range of critical topics, including the 2024 presidential election, the direction of the United States, and the top issues presidential and other candidates will be tackling.

The 1,221 poll respondents were randomly selected from registered voters in the 22 U.S. states with the highest concentration of Hispanics, according to the U.S. Census. They were surveyed from Nov. 18 to Dec. 3, 2023. The survey results have a margin of error of ±2.8%.

The majority of respondents want neither President Joe Biden nor former President Donald Trump on the ballot in 2024. When asked if either candidate should run for president, 45% of voters surveyed said they do not believe Biden should run for president, with 57% saying they do not want to see Trump on the ballot.

“Democrats have always taken Hispanics for granted, and now it’s problematic because this survey tells you that they can’t continue to do that,” said Eduardo Gamarra, director of the Latino Public Opinion Forum at FIU.

Support for Biden has eroded by 14%, from 67% in 2020 to 53% today. While also an unpopular choice, the survey results revealed that support for Trump has seen a rise from 29% in 2020 to 33% today.

“Our survey reveals the diverse and evolving priorities of Hispanic voters in the U.S., emphasizing their crucial impact on the political scene,” said Brian Fonseca, director of the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy. “Central issues like healthcare and immigration show a move away from traditional partisan views, indicating a more nuanced voter landscape as we approach 2024. This shift calls for policies that genuinely represent and address the unique needs of this key demographic, which could significantly redefine political strategies in future elections.”

The results of the survey demonstrate a growing independent force among registered voters within the Hispanic community across the United States. The equal dissatisfaction for both leading presidential candidates has Hispanics opting out of party affiliation as they focus more on the candidate as an individual, choosing the candidate that best resembles their personal values and prioritizes their policy concerns.

“As Hispanic communities in the United States begin to flex their political muscle in presidential politics, both major parties will be well-served to invest more time, effort, and resources in these communities,” said Carlos Díaz-Rosillo, director of the Adam Smith Center for Economic Freedom at FIU. “This poll makes it clear what happens when one party consistently takes Hispanics for granted: support for it erodes; and the other party does not make sustained, long-term investments in them: support for it is episodic.  The road to the White House, with ever-increasing intensity, goes through the Hispanic vote --a reality that presidential campaigns can no longer ignore.”

According to the survey, 52.9% of Hispanic voters believe the country is moving in the wrong direction. Their biggest concerns are inflation, the economy and immigration. Of those surveyed, 19.8% identified inflation as a key issue, with 16.6% viewing the economy as a top concern and 7.5% saying immigration—specifically open borders – are the number one security threat to the country, greater than terrorism.

“We are very proud to have supported this exhaustive study of the Hispanic voter executed by FIU,” said Alberto Pardo, CEO of Adsmovil. “As a Hispanic first digital media company, we remain committed to discerning this consumer cohort across all facets of their lives, including their political interests and attitudes. Uncovering their behaviors empowers us to better serve both our community and our advertisers with cultural insights and relevant media.”