On Venezuela: An expert, expats share perspectives

The streets of South Florida erupted in celebrations this past weekend as ex-pat Venezuelans cheered news of the U.S. capture of strongman Nicolas Maduro.

The now-former president of the South American country currently sits in a federal jail in New York City, along with his politically savvy wife Cilia Flores, after the U.S. military forcibly removed him from Caracas to face trial on charges of drug trafficking.

Once a wealthy country riding high on rich oil reserves, Venezuela elected socialist Hugo Chavez in December of 1998, and the regime went on to turn private companies into state-owned entities and seize control of key sectors like oil, telecom, electricity and food production. Mismanagement and rampant corruption, which continued under Maduro, eroded the once-thriving economy and drove runaway inflation and shortages that have hit citizens hard. The ensuing humanitarian crisis prompted nearly eight million to flee over the years.

An authority weighs in

Brian Fonseca is the director of FIU’s Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy and is a noted commentator on Venezuela’s political and security challenges in the context of U.S. foreign policy.

He recognizes the initial jubilation in South Florida as a normal reaction to the departure of “someone who has been an architect of violent repression against Venezuelans, who has forced millions of Venezuelans out of their homes, who has contributed to the rapid decline and deterioration of Venezuela's social, economic, political and security infrastructure.” 

Yet, the same forces remain in power and police are cracking down on citizens believed in support of the U.S. action, even demanding to examine individuals’ cell phones for messages in favor orf Maduro’s apprehension, those in the country have told their contacts abroad. So how meaningful was the operation?

Very, according to Fonseca.

The Trump administration has called the nationalization of the Venezuelan oil industry decades ago and commandeering of assets and investments that were developed and owned by U.S. companies one of “the largest thefts of American property” in history. That underlying justification now sees the two countries in active negotiations for the United States to take control of and sell Venezuelan oil, starting with millions of barrels currently stuck on tankers the American military seized in recent weeks as it pressured Maduro to leave on his own.

“The United States is saying, ‘Look, we're going to keep the blockade in place.’ And why is that important for Venezuela? Well fundamentally, oil is Venezuela’s biggest source of revenue,” Fonseca says. “The government needs oil revenue to survive, and the blockade is designed to strangle Venezuela economically.

“It is important for our community to understand this effort of reestablishing a ground game in Venezuela,” he continues, that will allow for “putting diplomats back in Venezuela, moving the American private sector back in Venezuela, reestablishing military-to-military relations in Venezuela, looking at the prospects of beginning to develop a civil society in Venezuela. All of that in pursuit of some type of transition back towards democracy.

“But we have to get through the valley of transition. . . .The U.S. is hoping that that is going to moderate the regime in a way that we can then begin to recalibrate institutions and then have elections and restore democracy over a mid term, not a long term. I think the restoration to democracy could be a year to two years down the road.”

And that the United States has effectively pushed Russia and China out of the equation - both of which were deeply involved in Venezuela’s oil sector and received oil in repayment for various infrastructure loans - is more than a bonus, Fonseca adds.

The community speaks

South Florida is home to the largest Venezuelan community outside of Venezuela itself, and FIU currently educates more than 800 students and employs many faculty and staff from the country in addition to counting thousands of alumni.

Street parties aside, many transplanted Venezuelans remain cautious about the evolving situation.

Anthony Sleiman is the senior communications manager at FIU’s Institute of Environment. The Venezuela native arrived in the United States a decade ago after the government expropriated his parents’ retail business.

“People cannot find food. There is no medicine. If you go to a hospital, there are no supplies,” he says of what he and his physician-wife saw firsthand and what his cousins share with him.

Sleiman bemoans most the crushing of a hard-working people. “Venezuelans are very educated,” he says. “We grow up going to universities, studying. We work as much as we can to become somebody, to be successful.”

He hopes the latest development proves the start of something big. “After 25, 26 years of darkness, we have some light,” he says. “I would like to see a change. I would like to see the country getting better.”

Stempel College marketing and communications director Jonathan Ruadez speaks of the confusion confronting family and friends back in his home country as well in Miami. “I have no clue what's going to happen. You see influencers on social media who have all sorts of opinions, like the ones that are saying that this is bad, that nothing’s going change, and the ones that say, ‘No, we need to wait. Everything’s going to change.’”

Ruadez adds that while many would have liked opposition leader María Corina Machado to be installed as president by the United States, rather than allowing Maduro’s vice president to be elevated to chief executive, he realizes that Machado does not have command of the military.

“So, I think that what the U.S. is doing is, ‘Okay, we need to keep these people for the transition because they ultimately still have the control of the military. The opposition has the support of the people, the actual people of Venezuela, but not the forces.”

English major and Honors College fellow Fernanda Castaneda arrived in the United States with her family nine years ago and worries for her grandmother. The senior student has experienced widely conflicting emotions.

“At the beginning, we were all a little shocked and kind of happy. And when I saw pictures of [Maduro] being walked over to the court, it felt relieving to some point,” she says.

“But he’s not being judged for the crimes he committed against Venezuela. He’s being judged because of his narco-trafficking implications. 

“I guess we don't know how to feel.”